September 25, 2020

4 chiacchiere con Ilaria Capua (Director One Health Center of Excellence University of Florida)

where? United States.

Florida.

Florida, north of Florida, in the farthest place from the ocean that you can think.

One may see it as crazy, i.

e.

to live in Florida, and so far away from the ocean.

However, this place is a college town.

This is the place of the University of Florida.

Therefore, it is far away from the ocean.

Do you know why? Hurricanes.

When hurricanes arrive – trust me – it's much better to live in the farthest place from the ocean.

I bet.

As a dad of four children I would have suspected that they have built the university far away from the ocean, so students could have not got distracted by going to the beach and fool around.

Instead the reason is definitely much more serious.

Certainly.

The biggest damage an hurricane can cause, I had found out by living here.

Namely, when an hurricane hits land, when it hits land, it sucks up water and then it drains the water all at once.

and this phenomenon is called “surge”: it rises like a backwash, a tide, which, however, is driven by the power of the hurricane and it unloads the whole water, which can realistically reach as far as – I don't know – 3 meters.

Unbelievable.

It is unbelievable.

And since I've started talking about hurricanes, now I take this opportunity to say another thing.

may I? Go for it.

In the meantime, I want to thank you.

There are thousands of people connected who want to greet you, and thank you.

What a special guest! That said, I really want to thank you, because you might be overwhelmed by so many interviews.

In this exact moment, I suppose everybody is reaching you.

Actually, I was wondering if even President Trump is contacting you – “Ilaria we need you!” –, right? You have tight schedule.

Actually, the mayor of New York contacted me.

Really? And what did he say? “Help”? Someone was looking for me on his behalf But I was not available – I was in the middle of something else – but I managed to give the input I wanted to give to mayor of New York.

Incredible.

You could have said instead that You were busy with Marco Montemagno.

“Sorry, I don't have time for you.

” Lol.

I was busy for real.

Lol.

Well, going back to hurricanes, the most important thing I want to tell you, during this – I would name it – personal recount of what could be a slightly wider perspective of this issue, is that there are hurricanes in Florida.

I experienced the first Floridian hurricane in 2016″ Irma.

Irma hit Tampa area, where there was A crazy surge which caused the evacuation of 5 million people.

During hurricanes you can follow very precise government guidelines.

they tell you exactly in which hurricane zone you are in regard to evacuation: zone 1, zone 2, zone 3.

They also tell you: you from zone 1 go here, you of zone 2 go here and there, Evacuation happen during the window of time established by the government.

They also manage the traffic.

Everything.

All the logistics.

You got where I want to bring this reasoning.

Now I would like to say something that I'm really happy to be able to communicate to so many people.

When Irma happened, 5 million people evacuated – which is as if Sicily evacuated – do you know how many deaths there were in a category 5 hurricane? 21.

Most of them – I don't remember how many – were elderly people in a nursing home, who were accidentally left without the ventilation system and therefore it was very hot and there were such fatalities.

Out of 5 million people evacuated, 21 dead.

In the same period I was informed that there was a downpour in Italy, a tremendous water bomb somewhere I honestly don't remember in Puglia.

10 people died flooded, in some cellars Or something.

My point is to show you what it means To be ready.

To have a plan for these disasters.

Also, I got the d.

p.

C.

m.

on my mobile phone – I actually receive it five times before the d.

p.

C.

m.

was Even finalized.

F.

Y.

I.

d.

p.

C.

m.

is the decree of the prime minister who declares the state of emergency.

This decree was sent Some hours before to my phone – do not remember exactly how much earlier – And as a consequence there was a traffic jam, even in Milan train station, et cetera et cetera.

Many people left.

And it was a mess.

Trust me: if you want to save 5 million people during an hurricane you don't do these things you can't allow them to happen.

If a traffic jam happens everything falls through.

Emergencies are real.

We cannot joke around.

Thousands of people are dying, so – Forgive me if I getting upset about it – it's quite easy to criticize what we are asked to do “Shall or shall not I wear the face-mask?” when smart and responsible people do not realize that their actions can have a domino effect on thousands of other people, I find this really unacceptable.

Unacceptable.

When people ask me what predictions I can Give about Italy, I do not know what to say.

How can we make predictions if there has been an escape of people, as a consequence of a leak of information.

I am not referring to some people specifically I don't even remember what day happened I don't know who these people were and what they where doing.

Are you referring to the escape which took place in Lombardy, namely the rush to the trains to reach the south Well this was my opening to tell you that what we are living is serious stuff.

We need to take it seriously.

Right.

Ilaria, first I would like to ask for some advice and then I would like that you help us summarize the situation where we are today.

Maybe you can give us an overall picture from above, I mean An overall view of this phenomenon and what is changing.

However, the first thing I wanted to ask is about England, which brings us back to what you were saying about being prepared.

I was surprised to hear a week ago the British government saying that “we don't stop” basically I am talking about the “herd immunity” “We will do the right thing at the right moment”.

From my perspective, on one side there is Boris Johnson, on the other side Italy where everything is closed A complete disaster.

Now the attitude of the British government has already changed: tomorrow school will close, public events have practically been suspended, pubs etc.

so they immediately accelerated and they changed their mind.

However, it is really difficult for people who are not experts – I am myself not a scientist, I don't know anything about viruses or healthcare or how to manage such situations.

I empathize with the politicians who have to manage such a crisis for the very first time.

I was wondering anyhow how much you think these different lines of action make sense, or all countries should have a common line, namely we all stay home, differently than what we saw in the government shift In England.

Well, I have a clear position in this regard, Italy was the first Western country to have this infection and, as you said, beyond who made the decisions I challenge anyone to be in the shoes of any politician nowadays.

Let's be honest here.

Let's thing of those people who are now beyond our decisions No matter which politician you favor.

I challenge anyone to be in such a situation, dealing with a virus that is unknown and as far as you know – as non expert – you could think that it could kill 50 per cent of humanity – which is not true, because this is not one of those viruses.

This virus doesn't have that engine, it doesn't have that chassis, it's not a virus of that type but you do not know at the very beginning of a crisis.

Therefore Italy did what it had to do – do not take my words to literally because I live on the other side of the world.

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Italy put in place restrictive measures which were then followed and continued by others.

what are restrictive measures for? They to reduce, to flatten the curve, that is so that fewer people get sick all at once and therefore we choose to Slow the spread to prevent overtaxing the finite resources, therefore To avoid the total collapse.

Because if we all get sick at once The system collapses.

it's a – let's say – a controlled management.

this is what we are trying to do.

It is clear that in order to do such, we had to put a brake on the economy.

From Italian citizens' perspective I challenge anyone to repeat who Boris Johnson said.

Boris Johnson said: “Dear British fellows, thousands of us will die and our loved ones if thousands of loved ones die, they will die.

He was very direct about it.

Therefore, if any of ours politicians would have come up with something like this, he/she would immediately have lost all the support.

We are a catholic country, we live in a country that protects life, and I am talking about our cultural heritage here.

Therefore, we take care of everyone for everything.

For example, my mom is someone who has had a series of health accidents.

She is now 82 years, more or less, I wish to be like at 82.

However, my mom had two or three health accidents.

In other parts of the world, there is not so much care for the elder population.

For example in the United States, Aging problem is a something that concerns – let's say – more the wealth more than the needed.

The last ones do not have often the possibility to age well.

Anyway, that said, what did Boris Johnson said? More or less, he said “let mother nature take her course I am willing not to put in place extraordinary measures for the containment of this infection, mitigation of this infection and therefore I am willing not to put all the measures in place that I have for flattening the curve.

” because if I put all the measures in place that I have for this, the market could crash.

– I think – he said “I am willing to take twice, three times, four times more higher, – we don't really know yet – the number of deaths in other countries, however I will not keep country at home.

His reasoning is from a theoretical point of view.

It is also standing from a practical view.

There are indeed some perplexities.

At the base of this reasoning is that if we let the virus circulating freely within the population, considering that two thirds of the cases, at least, are asymptomatic, We produce antibodies, as if they were the red traffic lights that stop the virus.

That is, every person who is infected, even with symptoms, and who has antibodies (the so-called herd immunity: I produce antibodies, you produce antibodies, he/she produces antibodies) and we carry on a “wall of people, ” who have a shield in front of us (“the antibody shield”).

However, sometimes in some diseases such a shield is made of plastic, is useless.

We don't know this yet, because it is the first time for this type of antibodies .

– Got it.

– In short, it seems risky, but it looks like (in England) they have already changed the approach as for now, they are quickly closing here and there.

That said, Ilaria, something that might turn useful is on the one hand the repetition – I know is exhausting for you since you keep on talking only about these topics -, however, people, in my opinion, always struggle to really understand these issues, and then it would be useful, step by step, to summarize the situation, to give a picture up-to-date, let's say – wait, I am not sure what day we are, I lost my count – on March 19, 2020: “coronavirus”.

Here is where we are at right now.

Let's understand where we are at, and in which direction we are going So, I would like to invite all the people who are connected – how many are you? – we have 7 thousand people connected at the moment.

Also greeting to you all 7.

000.

– So, follow me, I will bring you on a star, come with me, sit on a star, outside of planet earth – you don't have anything to loose you're home, I am at the center of the tour – again, you are stuck inside the house.

So close your eyes, and come with me on a star and let's watch, let's look at planet earth and zoom and.

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we arrive at a forest in Asia.

During daytime it doesn't happen much, at night we begin to see bats that come out.

Bats that usually live their life, in the middle of the forest, those kinds of forests that if you want to access, it is a insane endeavor – forests, forests, forests, namely places that are segregated, that are segregated, virgins, uncontaminated.

therefore this bat is doing his own business in the middle of the forest and, at some point, he hears a noise out the bush and someone comes out, someone with a net that catches the aforementioned bat and all his family, and then this person brings them home, and he sleeps with the bats, then such a person brings the bat in the city, and he sells it in a market; in this market the bat, which was doing his own business with the virus, that is, the bat had a virus within him, but these are bat problems, at a certain point, in this mess of bats like him, who come from another part of the jungle, or from another, animals of all types, ranging from frogs to snakes, they are all captured in water bowls, insects, birds, skunks, and then there is also the pangolin – you know what a pangolin is – well, I hear talking continuously about it, but tell us – the preparation with the pangolin then the pangolin is an endangered animal – poor pangolin – it is an animal that can be considered like a dinosaur, actually it is a mammal, but it is all covered in scales, so according to mother nature, the pangolin was supposed to have hair, but hair became scales, evidently because It needs it – who knows why? Maybe because it lives in a certain climate where it has to protect himself, and it's made of metal, it doesn't move as much – this poor pangolin is an animal as big as a cat, more the less, people hunt it, the pangolin live in africa they hunt it, and it is a delicacy In some cultures, including the Chinese one, and then they use it for another purpose, they take the pangolin scales and use them in the 20000:20:18, 260 –> 00:20:22, 540It is true and it is not funny.

they seized 10 tons of pangolin scales a year ago, – the illegal pangolin traffic.

– I am not kidding.

Ten tons.

Do you know how many pangolins have been speculated? – So, let's start with the bat, and in this regard I have to stop you for a second, because there are billions of us, commenting asking if the story is true, the bat story, how do we really know that the virus doesn't come from the lab, from goldrake, how do we know that the virus comes from a bat? Because there is a genetic code, like a barcode Viruses have a barcode, and like a barcode, when you put it on the scanner, it tells you this is equal, equal, the same to this one, or it tells you that it is almost the same, but not exactly the same, And then you make genealogical trees, so this virus is a virus that looks like a whole bunch of viruses that are in the bats Of a certain geographical area.

– Got it.

– Look, it be nice that we did not dwell on this specific thing because of the conspiracy theories – but maybe we talk about it after – sorry for the interruption, but it is clear.

The bat.

The bat arrives and they put it in a cage together with the pangolin, and that's an Asian animal an African anima, they cannot do such things, biologically, you are putting together realities that are separated by oceans, by thousands and thousands of miles, and the virus from the bat got into the pangolin, some Chinese has pulled – I am simplifying obviously, and I applying down here – imagine a market operator found the pangolin to sell The pangolin pooped on his face, The operator sold to the pangolin and the virus came out of the pangolin poop.

Or from the bat poop, from the stink skunk, it doesn't really matter though.

However, from one of these animals that got infected within the live animal market, where very poor people who have nothing live a group of people got infected, within the market.

These people are poor, poor people, that is, those who do the cleaning within the market, they live inside the market, are people who live in inhuman conditions.

Those who live in such bad conditions, usually do not have access to medical treatment, and so what they did after the pangolin poop the sneeze of the pangolin into their face, they did not really pay attention to it.

They cleaned up but then they start having a cough and a fever after a week, and what do they do? If you, Marco, were a Chinese gentleman who lives in a very extreme and poor condition and you sneeze at the beginning of December in China, what would you do? Either I will have honeycomb I refer to Chinese medicine, I go to see a family doctor.

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But just for a sneeze?? – no no for a sneeze no.

I will resist.

It will pass.

– Sure, it will pass.

But then, you start to see everyone sneezing, Everyone sick, and you think: “wait let's go to the doctor.

” They look for a doctor and what do you think the doctor would tell them? “Go home, it is just a cold, it is the flue.

I mean, it is mid-December, in China, a group of people with some respiratory symptoms, By the way, did you get vaccinated for the flu? – Nope.

“So you got the flu.

” And they are sent home again.

Then ten, hundred, thousand, each time more, The doctor sent them home, the infection gets bigger, the wave of the infection comes to the attention the Chinese health authorities.

what do Chinese health authorities do? they look for what they know, so they say “flu?” “no wait” “parainfluenza?” “no” “is it a bacterial pneumonia?” “no” this no, this no, so they went to look for the causative agent is certainly not an easy thing, I mean they had no tools to go and find this virus they had to go and explore, perform discovery techniques to understand what happened because this coronavirus was inside the bat until one month before, so they took a bit of time, when they realized it was a coronavirus, coronaviruses do not usually cause a very serious symptomatology, it was believed it could be contained.

We had SARS, we had MERS, the other two emergencies in short, however, when they realized that they did not get it, they locked down.

What happened in the meantime? We are always on our star, however, since stars can sometimes tell you about the past let's make a quick rewind to 8 thousand years ago, 8 thousand years ago man domesticated bovines and in the process of domesticating the bovine, which means man drinks milk and that man gets dirty with the blood of the bovine it means contact with the bovine, so another of these phenomena occurs.

The rinderpest virus, which is a virus which also was eradicated one of the big successes of veterinary public health.

The rinderpest virus makes the leap from infected species to humans and you know what it becomes? check if anyone knows it -let's see, let's wait, there is always a 20 second delay between your message – I will take a break in the meantime – let's see, I don't know, wait some said a pangolin measles, some say measles, the plague, smallpox – who was it? – many said it, Gabriele, Isa – so the rinderpest virus has become the measles virus with homo sapiens that moved step by step in the man hunter prairies, as the gatherer he is Measles virus has gone around the world on foot together with homo sapiens 'trucks trucks trucks' he went all around.

Now I give you another thing to tell at dinner tonight.

Measles was not so present in the peoples in south america, the indigenous peoples, when the conquistadores arrived, they died far more from measles than from the war, the Indians, the locals, the aztecs also maybe even north american indians, now i don't remember this so well, for sure, it wasn't there in South America and therefore measles has found all the green traffic lights again because they entered a new continent – and it infected everything, okay- then why did I do this reasoning, because this happened 8 thousand years ago and now let's rewind a little closer: 100 year old Spanish flu the Spanish flu is a very serious influenza that has occurred around 1920 and the end of the First World War, a virus with a lot of teeth, very aggressive that has caused between 20 and 40 million deaths and has gone around the world in two years.

I mean, homo sapiens with measles took 5, 000 years, Spanish flu took two years, the coronavirus took eight hours then.

Back to China, we came to understand that in middle December this virus was already circulating significantly in china, the authotitis, authority, authorities – you are tired Ilaria I know, I applause for the resistance your resilience, 8 hours and coronavirus is in china Chinese authorities have tried to contain it etc.

etc.

So flights remained open so imagine that there are in china the great-grandparents of the viruses that we have now, the great-grandfather has made three sons in china he sent one south to japan a bit there, he sent one to korea, one to australia.

A line, that's what viruses do a viral swarm, are you understanding? Has gone down, a viral swarm has come towards Europe and a viral swarm made the rounds on the Pacific because the most affected area of ​​the united states is the east coast, I mean the west coast, california, where there is a lot of chinese movement so in the month before the lock down people moved I don't know how many because we should see the data of the passengers and honestly I have no idea, however in a month do you think that not at least a thousand infected Chinese have moved? – we do not know the numbers but certainly a lot of people going around, like always – no? and therefore the virus began to circulate the virus began to circulate in Italy probably in the beginning of January and I believe there is also evidence that this virus was mistaken for a slightly more difficult flu no, because when I talk to hospital doctors many people tell me “look, we thought was a particularly serious flu this year, so it is likely that it has been around for a long time however, let's go back to the star – I'm here, I'm calm on my star- from my position observing the phenomenon, something that should turn out to be very clear is that we have altered a system first of all by invading the spaces that were not ours, now everyone is mad at the bat, but sorry it was us who went to bother the bat, not the bat that came to bother us point number one, point number two, we created a second risk factor that is to not only to bring animals out and invade spaces but also to make It happens inside megacities, megacities are explosive because in the megalopolis there is poor hygiene, poverty, inequalities etc.

etc.

etc.

Not only have, we also have taken some large syringe and boarded planes, unknowingly obviously, with a whole series of people on these planes who have these syringes of virus, which spread to thousands of people.

The virus, poor thing, already he just wanted to be quiet inside bat, already we sent him inside a pangolin, where it did not want to go, it pissed the pangolin, the skunk and all the market.

Not only it didn't want to infect the people and now it has to infect because it does what it has now finds itself having to infect thousands hundreds of thousands perhaps millions of people that he wasn't programmed to do, because he would have done it just step by step – ok – this is the story – so you're saying that since you told this excursus, the first thing that comes to my mind is that obviously this will be neither the first nor the last time because either we take a step back as mankind and say ok let's not bother bats and avoid going overboard, which is unlikely to happen therefore it means that we will see other events of this type, right? – in fact I have just written a piece that is looking for a home that you can call “The Next New Normal” that is the next new normal because like you rightly say, you can not go back now, there is not only Wuhan, there are many megacities, we need to reverse this trend and put in place immediate response mechanisms there are some today, we have the technology, I am in florida, you are in london and we have people who listen to us, today, that is, look, I tell you one thing, we are still thinking in an old way because we are still running behind it and today as we have injected a speed into this system look this is something that is very complicated and perhaps subtle but this is the real breaking point, the real breaking point is the speed that we have injected into the system, a speed that is brought by technology it is linked to technology, but which is not compatible with the system that hosts it biology moves at its own rhythm, not at the rhythm of the stock exchange or of the planes.

Understand what I am saying? We also made a mess here, because luckily this is a coronavirus and it's not that they are so smart usually, those are viruses that I have worked with many years ago, these are viruses that are not particularly Resistant, there are much worse viruses let's say that from some points of view they are a bit dumb, a little fragile – so in our bad luck we were also lucky to have caught a not-so-bad virus – they have petals, if the petal falls like the one, what's it called, the beautiful and the beast, and it only takes one petal to fall and he is screwed – ok so I'm sorry you actually say That today we have a technology that allows us to be more predictive and play in advance compared to the pandemics that will come next or next similar events or in fact if we we continue like this, we will inevitably find ourselves from time to time having to face the new mess with more or less tremendous viruses – in my opinion we have to realize that we are part of the problem just because we created this situation and we must make ourselves account that this problem will not go away however this problem is something crazy, because an inanimate microscopic being really just a grain in the gear, this grain which is not even hard But is soft, in the sense that it is not a diamond grain, has entered in the gear and blew all the gear up.

This brings us back in my opinion as if we had shovels on our feet and brings us back to say “look we are part of nature” therefore if a virus comes to us, the virus takes us, we are not immune- of course I think this is a very important signal so I think it will create a different awareness and maybe there will be movements of awareness for let's say limit some of the damages that have generated I will start somewhere else to get to answer your question certainly no one was prepared, neither us, nor in the governments because there wasn't an organization at European level, there is no organization at the national level, we were really walking in the dark this can't be, it can't be, it can't be that cases are registered in a way in one place, and in another way in another place.

Therefore we need a plan of pandemic preparation as God commands we have to do it and we have to respect it and each of us has to do it so that he can buy his masks in peacetime – sure and then it should be something shared globally and it's not that every country does whatever it wants no because that's the problem that you see day, france acts one way, england in another, the US at the beginning says it's nothing, we put a wall, everyone has gone a bit on his own and it becomes difficult to manage a situation that is global.

I will jump onto an economic topic I was talking with someone named Forchielli today and rightly the reflection was in the moment in which Italy leaves this story, because this problem gets solved the problem is that maybe the united states are further behind and then American tourism still can't travel because it's behind, and then it's up to another country.

Thus everything is on a checkerboard and so the impact is enormous but from all points of view not only economic, and therefore, Ilaria, what is done in this situation? a good pandemic global preparation strategy is ok I imagine there is one – let's say it should be updated because it did not work very well – okok – the criteria, the WHO that declared and didn't declare, declared and didn't declare.

Why? Because the criteria are obsolete, those things were written 10 years ago, 15 years ago and now air traffic is another matter so it comes to have a collective awareness that it takes effort in this direction to make pre-pandemic plans here is where this should be done but here you are talking about entrepreneurs, I tell you that first of all we should develop a mechanism for us as a community Italians or the European space agency I'm talking about this type of efforts, we should prepare laboratories that already exist and that compete on some things there are five laboratories in the world, 10 that develop different production lines of the vaccine, of the vaccine can be produced the recombinant vaccine, the vaccine expressed in this way, the subunit vaccine, the live vaccine attenuated, so it would be necessary in times of peace to already have virtuous people who work on vaccines so that when the problem comes they work not against each other but in synergy – sorry for interrupting Ilaria, is it because in this time for the development of this vaccine, which from what I understand it is not that it arrives tomorrow but it will take at least a year if they find it, but everyone works on their own, every country every pharmaceutical company tries to develop it and says “her I am, I am the first one, I have it” or is there a team work somewhere? – no, there are pharmaceutical companies more or less subsidized from governments that work on their own and I find this really stupid without considering the diagnostics, we have not touched on the topic of the numbers in this epidemic, the numbers are a mess you know why? Because Chinese have developed a diagnostic test, a molecular probe that goes looking for a genome, without testing this probe on a certain number of positive samples and a certain number of negative samples so it was validated in the field but has not been validated according to standards this it is a crazy difference between a validated test and an invalidated test – okay, this is the test made in China, and the other tests that are being done right now are they validated tests or the same test everywhere? – I haven't expressed myself well, these tests derive from a recipe45500:45:10, 190 –> 00:45:17, 010 published in China then reviewed by the WHO, they give you a recipe but it's not like anyone has tried to see if these tests work You are given a recipe and they tell you “this is the recipe these are the parameters” but those who work in the laboratory know that the laboratory conditions are determinants, the tests must be run in the laboratory before using them and we did not have time to do it, so i am very very skeptical about the data and then there are all the asymptomatic ones, we talk and go between groups of patients without having any tool validated in that category to test.

We talked about antibodies before, now we begin to see tests but they have not been validated and that is an emergency so it is an emergency without having anything ready so I make an example, I have a dinner with 10 businessman and I did not do grocery shopping, I have to come up with something, they will eat plain rice – clear, so this means that in fact all the data that we see continuously can have a noticeable variation delta based on how I'm going to prepare the ingredients of that famous test recipe, but we take them for certain – now I will give you an example – can you cook?- I interviewed Davide Oldani today a starry chef and I said I'm very bad, however, spaghetti with tomato sauce I can do – okay you are very bad, the thing is irrelevant because in an emergency even if you are really bad you have to do it “here is the recipe for salmon soufflè, the one that must grow and become like a cloud, do it” “what do you mean do it” “you have to do it” okay so you take it, you do it but then you tell me “but sorry but which yeast Do I have to put? The Bertolini yeast? Or in that other I put the eggs? How big do they have to be? The flour? so then these are the laboratory conditions, the tests of laboratory must be made their own in their own conditions and then there are COSTANZA____________________________________________________________________________________ for example yeast a is not equal to yeast b and so as well enzyme A is not the same as enzyme A that someone else sells.

Therefore, there is the need to take moment to understand this.

The data, as far as I am concerned, must be taken in a completely indicative manner, they can show trends, but OK, maybe there is someone listening who knows and understands about statistics and mathematics we are comparing data orginating from different samples, I mean, what are we talking about? Certainly.

The problem is that we citizens take them with certainty.

When the New York Times, the Corrierie, the Guardian say that today there are ten thousand infected cases at that point you say “that is the data” For example, maybe the 10000 cases are all coming from the same place because there is a structure that is infected.

We do not have a picture of what is happening in Italy.

We could have the picture–How could we have the picture?– Do we want to have the whole picture? you swab a representative sample of the population.

Not in the infected areas, there is no need to do this in infected areas, we know it's there.

We need to understand why in naples you do not seen it in the hospitals, Milan and lombardy, Milan is it the outlier, that is, the exception because there is something that aggravates the situation there or is the first of a long series? if after milan falls paris falls london falls rome falls palermo for now we can only hope for the best for what will come reminds me of a story during the war that there was this plane full of bullet holes and an expert is aked to say how we can we strengthen it.

Everyone looked at the holes, where they were and say we have to put more protection there instead, the experts rightfully says, no you don't have to look where there are holes but where there are no holes because those are non-fixable parts of the plane.

Therefore, the method and analysis are important but if you were to say, sorry for returning to the current situation, it is clear that there is a preparedness problem, there is a data analysis problem, and a lack of alignment on what are the precise parameters and precise variables to analyze.

Given the current situation, what do you think will happen next now that this is our current big concern? We already know that we need to be better prepared for the next round of viruses, but, now, which one you think is the best way to go? what is the best strategy? -so, let's go back to our star, OK? let's go back there for a moment everyone to the star, everyone in the chat to the star our virus we are the ones that placed it before this hoard of beings to be infected so, if someone thinks that these type of infections can be controlled, you should forget about it.

The only thing we can do is try to manage its spread.

My projection is that this virus could become the new human cold virus.

There are currently 4-5 coronavirus circulating among humans, which are responsible for causing the cold these viruses, where do they come from? I don't know they probably derive from animals, no? animals host many coronaviruses, but if they entered the human population a thousand years ago, how can we know? therefore, I would like to think, even if with total uncertainty, given that we have no data, I like to think that this virus could become the next virus causing the human cold, and, therefore, there will not even be a need for a vaccine.

My concern however is, that the virus wanted to become the new virus causing human colds, however, at its own pace.

We instead have powered it to turbo speed.

Therefore, I don't know if this goes well from an evolutionary point of view or if it can originate scenarios difficult to control, it is possible that the virus will have some surprises in store.

That is, it is a virus that first had to infect a small number of people before it exploded all over the world– why do you say, and I have already heard you saying this during another chat, saying that maybe there might not be the need the of a vaccine.

But why? because this virus will at some point stop spreading, or will slow down? No, you might get it and be asymptomatic or it will make you sneeze excuse me, do you get a flu vaccine? No– No, okay, you should get vaccinated.

Everyone, you should get vaccinated and then I will explain you why you should.

So, you do not get vaccinated against the flu.

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If the coronavirus was a virus that.

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okay, you don't get vaccinated against the flu.

okay, would you get vaccinated against a cold? No –No, then, why would you get vaccinated against the coronavirus if it manifests itself as a cold? that is, if it becomes the next cold virus, the vaccine will not be needed.

Why would you get vaccinated against the cold if you do not even get vaccinated against the flu? first, get vaccinated against the flu and then we can think about the cold.

— Absolutely, however, to date the problem is that the harmfulness of this virus, at least from what we can see, is that it is not like a normal cold or the flu.

The problem is that currently it has a different strength than what it could have after circulating in the human population and becoming a normal cold, or I'm wrong? Of course, it has a different strength because there are no red traffic lights.

First, there is no herd immunity, second, it does have a different strength, but I won't let you slip on the tragic mistake that you made.

You should stop using the two trivial words “simple flu” the flu kills a lot of people every year if this virus was as dangerous as the flu and would overlap to the flu the number of dead would be many many more.

The influenza virus is a primary pathogen.

The influenza virus causes a cytokine storm, that is, the influenza virus is capable, as a conductor, of making all the trumpets play, all the instruments of that orchestra that send signals of destruction to all the body tissues.

The flu hurts.

You feel very sick with flu because the flu sends “poison” to all your organs.

This is the reason why you feel bad for a week when you have the flu and then you take another ten days to recover.

So please, let's start a campaign to raise awareness that the flu is not a “simple flu”.

This is like an influenza and let's thank God that it is not like the Spanish flu nor as the Asian flu nor like the Honk Kong flu from 1978.

In my opinion, when one says in the vernacular language tha one has a trivial flu one thinks, a doctor thinks, okay, it is like a cold but with some fever this is more or less the logic.

But, I missed your point when you were saying to get vaccinated against the flu but there might not be the need of getting vaccincated against this virus because the moment we reach herd immunity we should be fine.

I'm confused, because then, Boris is right Boris is right in his logic about herd immunity.

Do we reach it after we are vaccinated or can we reach it even before? If you resist, if you survive, you reach it.

— Wait, let's pause for a minute– Explain us.

Let's talk about the flu, okay? Why should you get vaccinated against the flu? because it makes you stay in bed a week and that is already cumbersome let's face it, then if your son gets infected, that is, there are a whole host of other reasons, but if your grandfather gets infected, he would probably pass away, along with someone else that is, there are clinical presentations of the flu that severe.

Okay, then you could be inside a hospital, you could be one of those who haven't gotten vaccinated and has been infected with the flu and then went to the hospital, clogging the healthcare system and taking up essential services that should be used only for those who came in with a pneumonia that is, those who came in with a pneumonia that is difficult to control.

While you could have stopped the flu and you didn't stop it when you could.

First of all, you introduce a diagnostic doubt.

Had you been 59400:58:31, 300 –> 00:58:36, 100 vaccinated, there would be no doubt, number one, –ok the field is already limited, okay.

Number one.

Number two, if you get vaccinated and then you get the coronavirus, you won't get the flu, therefore, you avoid a double infection.

It is possible that two viruses are worse than one.

If you get the coronavirus, and on top of that a flu infection I guarantee you, plus you are a male and this virus hits males harder, I guarantee you that next time you will think twice.

So, when the coronavirus situation exploded, I said that the only thing we can do is get vaccinated againts the flu, because we lessen the risk, In the meantime, there will be less people getting sick, in the meantime there's less confusion in the diagnosis, and meanwhile we avoid people who could prevent a respiratory clinical picture end up in the hospital.

–It is clear.

–Now the coronavirus vaccine, Do you know how many are the patients in Italy that have died only because of the coronavirus? No, I have no clue, also because I never understand who dies with the coronavirus or because of the coronavirus.

–Okay, now I wil explain you.

But then I need to leave because I'm really tired.

It's from this morning at 6 that I am giving interviews.

Okay, so, we were saying.

.

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–How many are the patients that have died.

–How many are the people who have an acute viral pneumonia.

Okay, this is the question, how many are the people who have died only due to coronavirus, okay.

Until yesterday, do you know how many there were? — Two? ahh, Okay.

Today, I think I have read that it is 17.

All the other people who died, they had in average 3.

4 comobordities, which means that they were either cardiopathic, diabetic and obese or immunosuppressed.

In a healthcare system that is struggling, people with a fragile health who go to that hospital, are at risk due to the overload, the fear of outbreaks occurring inside the hospital, of getting infected with the coronavirus, but they die because they are very sick people.

So, what I mean to say and the great difference between lombardy and the rest of the world, is that in lombardy there is a number of deaths attributed to the coronavirus which is completely different compared to the rest.

So, there must be something in Lombardy that renders the situation particularly serious, because in the others regions of italy this is behaving, this is manifesting like an influenza infection that is, a flu infection with 10 percent fatality is really high, do you understand? as what is happening in lombardy.

There are flu infections, such as the Spanish flu that have produced a very high mortality, and it took time and so on and so on, but in the rest of Italy is not like that, and, therefore, what is there? there is the need to understand it in my opinion, understand it and it's not easy.

Look, I really don't criticize anyone and if I have used some slightly witty terms I do these to defuse the situation.

But it is a very complicated situation, very complex, where we only need collective responsibility, that is what we need.

Korea and China they stopped, and Japan, they have stopped the number of infections because, because, they put in place draconian measures that have been respected which has not happened in Italy.

After this, I'm getting ready to wrap up.

One last question that so at least the 8, 600 connected people, which by the way have increased instead of decreased, they usually go down slowly during the transmission, while this time they have increased at the end of the night we will arrive to 60.

000.

No, the last question is, looking at the end of the year, what do you think the situation will be in which we will find ourselves at the end of the year? will be a situation where we tell Ilaria, fantastic, do you remember when we last spoke and now we are doing fine and everyhting is in place blah blah blah, even if we still do not have a vaccine.

What is the situation that you picture at the end of the year? also to make people understand what the future is holding for us.

I am perfectly aware of the devastating energy that this grain of sand that ended up in the mechanism of the world brings to us.

If we wil talk again in December, we will be two completely different people because this black swan will have turned our lives upside down.

For example, think of divorce, of how many people divorce.

the people that were locked inside the house, how many people will spli; how many familiar explosions, that is, of quarrels, etc.

etc.

will occur.

This is a moment of great crisis in my opinion because so many situations that are at tipping points, when there are shocks, they are the first to tip over.

There will be people who will suffer, there will be people who will die, there will be companies that will close there will be families that will implode, and, therefore, I am much more worried honestly about this, and for this I want to make an appeal to all our 8, 000 listeners, look that this is everyone's problem, we cannot just play around.

If it is not us, it will be the neighbor.

Then what we have to do and where I we should be, let's say, where would I like to be in December.

I would like to be in December with a vaccine ready if needed and in my opinion if it will be needed, it will be used only in at risk categories, which makes sense because people like you, that is, if the risk of you getting sick with the coronavirus is lower than with the flu, do you get vaccinated? no, you don't get the flu shot so why would you get this one.

Therefore, healthy populations, especially women, because women seem to be less vulnerable, in my opinion, for them, there will be no need for the vaccine.

If there will be, it will be used in certain categories or maybe we will all use it, I don't know, we will have to see if the virus shows its teeth.

I hope not for everyone.

In December we will have antivirals, there will be a therapy.

But, in December, there will have been a great jolt of the institutions and moments of great tension internationally.

Africa, India, just a couple of words.

Just two little words.

Just like that, when we are about to close? you just mention these “small” words.

how many Chinese, in your opinion, how many Chinese went from China to Africa in a month? In Africa it is not possible to take a flight that is full up to 1/3 of people from China.

So, my appeal is to be a little more understanding towards people who are dealing with immense responsibilities.

It is easy for me, here I am speaking, but I am not the one commanding and deciding.

The things I say do not have direct consequences.

So, I'm luckily in a great position.

And I try to maintain an objectivity and a lucidity from the outside because people who are inside, risk of loosing pieces of the puzzle Therefore, I believe that in December, this energy, the energy that this event contains, one great energy that can be completely destructive.

Instead, I would like to see it transformed into constructive energy, that is, where there will be some collapses that can be people's physical collapses, can be collapses of companies, can be collapses of institutions, I'd like for people to understand that this is the real, the real new great challenge, and, therefore, we already start thinking of this new reality, for example, we say oh well, we should diminish air traffic by 50 percent.

Okay, so an epochal change, I would say epochal compared to what we are used to.

–Now I ask you to pay in kind.

What should I send you? the apples from Brighton?– you publish on your website, I don't know how it works, the link to “beautiful science” –I've seen the video, the one on the importance of science, with Giorgia and Bocelli I've seen it.

“Beautiful science” for the people who are listening go to search on youtube, look for “Beautiful science, Giorgia, Bocelli” and the theme is the importance of science and education.

Also I will make this payment in kind, I will post it You know why? Because that is an inspirational video on the importance of science, done on the year of Leonardo's five hundred years with the Italian song “I live for her”, which is a very powerful music that says “I live for science” because science is done by people, not by machines, it is made by women who have bang their heads against computer algorithms, bioinformatics, the thermostats that break, the machines.

We have to defend our scientists, be proud of our scientists, don't shoot at them and say that they are nerds of losers or geeks.

There are also those, but I mean, you can find them in other professions as well.

I would like it to be a pride of Italy, from Italy to our science for our scientists and launched from the perspective of a new world in which one must have include science in the debate everyday use this, let's say this Italian teaser like a cry of that is, we have a science, a research that is fighting tooth and claw, we have a biomedical compartment that is under great tension and we must be proud of them, and of all the other Italian researchers.

We want to generate one million views in one year.

If you give me a hand, you do me a courtesy, it was prepared for schools but now that schools aren't there and it was also made for events, and there are no events –online– the pandemic has ruined my project.

Ilaria, thank you very much! we will keep in touch.

Greetings to all people who have been with us and thanks again! .

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