September 25, 2020

Doctor Says 'A Lot Of Transmission Left To Come' | Morning Joe | MSNBC

dr.

Robert Redfield was totally misquoted in the media on a statement about the fall season and the virus totally misquoted you were accurately quoted I'm accurately quoted in the Washington Post what dr.

Redfield clearly was asking for just like we asked for every American to follow the guidelines he's saying please add to that guidelines getting your flu shot [Music] the great thing is we'll be able to find it earlier this time that might not come back at all Jeff it may not come back at all he's talking about a worst case scenario where you have a big flu and you have some corona but it's all possible it's also possible it doesn't come back at all we will have corona virus in the fall I am convinced of that there will be corona virus in the fall so joining us now director of the Center for infectious disease research and policy and a professor in the medical school at the University of Minnesota dr.

Michael osterholm he's the author of the book entitled deadliest enemy our war against killer germs so doctor who's right the president or his top doctors well first of all let me just fine-tune the message and help you understand that right now more no not more than 5 percent of the US population has been infected with this virus we know that this is a highly infectious virus so it'll keep transmitting into people will try to infect people tell 60 or 70 percent of the population is infected that's when we develop this herd immunity so you can just do the own your own mental math from five percent to 60 to 70 percent there's a lot of transmission left to come it could even stay through the summer into the fall well into the following year so it's here there's no question about that it's like the law of gravity is here we're going to see a lot more transmission do you share the concerns of dr.

Falchi and others that the fall and winter months maybe the worst months like we saw in 1918-1919 because of it siding with flu season does that present unique challenges that we need to prepare for today yeah I think the the issue with now that this is a corona virus not a flu virus we're not exactly sure where it's going to go next I can tell you for certain it is going to infect millions and millions of more people in this country over the months ahead we could very easily see a huge Peaks much larger than we've seen already in this country occur over the next 6 to 12 months the bottom line message is that we could have multiple peaks we could have one this summer one later in the fall one next spring and again just keep thinking of that number 60 to 70% infected as opposed to the less than 5% now so I think we have to prepare for that those big Peaks just exactly when they'll occur I don't know and I think that's important so I don't want people to come away and say if we don't have a fall peak like has been predicted that we were wrong no you will continue to see lots and lots of transmission we have to prepare for that we literally are in the second inning of a nine inning game right now so doctor how do we live through that how do we how does our economy get restarted how do we survive that economically how do we survive that socially how do we survive that culturally as a country as we move forward over what likely will be at least an 18-month process well first of all it's really important that we look at the leadership issue and this is not a partisan statement I've served roles in the last five presidential administrations here in the state of Minnesota I worked for two Republican governors two Democratic governors one independent governor no one could tell you my partisan politics we need a fireside chat capability over the days of weeks ahead because it's going to be a really big challenge and we've got to have a way for us to rally around that that's the number one ingredient right now for getting through it number two we've got a greatly expand testing we got to have people stop coming on shows like the same test test test because we don't have any tests the tests basically are limited by the number of reagents we need a national initiative right now to figure out how to make these chemicals that then can do the test because we do need to test but we just don't have the Cape ability so that doesn't help the second thing we have in terms of public health programs we have to do is the contact tracing and follow-up that will be important we have to do that the third thing we've got to make sure that our hospitals are capable of handling these surges that it means also in protecting our healthcare workers we are losing hundreds of health care workers on the job every day in these big outbreak areas because they're getting infected at work so we've got to protect them those are all parts of then allowing society to move forward and keeping businesses as we can open but until we do these other things we're gonna have a hard time reopening and staying reopened so okay – the tests all the other measures that you just mentioned prepping hospitals etc does that create the potential for any type of scenario where we do not see the coronavirus in the fall no we're going to see it you know it's like gravity I can't emphasize this enough there is not a debate here I mean if you if you want somebody to debate you on gravity then you can have this debate but the bottom line is until we get 60 or 70 percent of the population infected we are going to see those fibers can you look at countries like Singapore where everybody held them out as the standard to say look at they've controlled this thing they they know how to do this they know how to test in contact rates they're now in a state of national emergency where yesterday they had the highest number of cases reported so again this isn't going to be a constant battle and whether we have a big peak this week or that week we're going to have lots of peak activities where we're going to be highly challenged that's what we have to mentally begin to prepare for as well as all the administrative issues and until we do that we're going to be in this fool's kind of position of assuming that well if we just bend the curve now get into summer we're okay please wake up world we are going to be in this for months to come and that means we have to repair accordingly Willie dr.

osterholm it's Willie guys thanks for being on this morning and bringing some of that true that you bring I want to ask you about the state of Georgia specifically because the president United States yesterday sort of turned on his heel and condemned our camp in Georgia for opening parts of the economy that will begin tomorrow governor Kemp says some businesses can be open yesterday in an interview up there in Minneapolis you said that states like Georgia are headed for a train wreck could you be specific about what you mean there and gain that out a little bit well first of all any time you're opening up in a situation where you already have cases increasing where your systems are already overstressed and now you're making it seem to people that they can in fact go out and have these close contacts you're just adding gasoline to the fire and so why in a state like Minnesota for example we still have had challenges but we've had incredibly high compliance with the distancing issues we've actually been able to flatten this issue and slow it down but had we not we would have seen this this grow very quickly too so Georgia is really sitting on a situation where I think in three to four weeks it'll take that long for these cases to develop from people coming back out into the public and so forth if they do that if they do that remember a governor saying they can open doesn't mean that they will open I have a sense from my context and George a lot of them are actually questioning the governor's movement themselves so I think that it's just a matter of again simple infectious disease epidemiology put your people in harm's way they're going to be harmed and that's what's going to happen in states like Georgia when they have the data showing the virus is still being transmitted and as we talk about testing you pointed to something I was interested in because I've heard this from emergency room doctors and ICU doctors who work in New York City who I'm in close touch with who report back after their long shifts there about false negatives and testing you say 15 to 20 percent of coronavirus tests give a false negative one ICU doctor I talked to said they're very worried about this idea of at-home testing because people don't know how to use them you have to be trained and how to test the corona virus so you could get more false negatives there and more people thinking they're free and clear and going out into society so how should we be testing well first of all let's just take a step back and realize we did run into a very serious situation when the CDC was not able to get the testing out that we need an early on but then to play catch-up the FDA has basically in many ways backed away from the very responsibility that they should have of assuring that the tests that are on the market are effective and they work the way they can under this emergency authorization process they're now at least 45 of these PCR tests the kind of tests for the virus and over 90 antibody tests and in those cases many of these have not been vetted have not been a sufficient ly investigated know how old well they work we know with some of the antibody tests as was described by one senior FDA official these a lot of these are crappy so one of the things we have to do immediately is the FDA has to take control this right now it's the wild wild west with what's available for testing we have to assure we have the highest quality test on the market that'll help a lot but even then they're not going to be perfect tests and we have to take a look carefully at how they're used right now if you were to use the antibody test in most locations in this country half of all the positives you would find would be false positives telling people they're protected when they're not imagine if I told you and you are of health care worker going into a room full of culvert virus that you wanted to be sure you're protected you have positive antibody but oh by the way one out of two chances it's not real we've got to do better on these tests and so again just test test tests and the answer one we've got to have test two they have to work and number three we got to know how to use them and we're not having that discussion yet it's all about what the numbers of the day are and that is not getting us to an effective and comprehensive testing program in this country which we desperately need by the way we desperately need that it's a doctor let let let it let's again talk about the roadmap as we move forward we're at 5% now you say probably you know probably about 5% of Americans have been infected it's going to end up around 60 70 percent a lot more Americans are going to be infected many more Americans will die from this as we move forward as we look at the numbers that you've presented us today so again my question is if you're a small business owner what plans do you make moving forward over the next 18 months if you're the father of children as I am that have underlying conditions that will mean that they'll be Justin in as much danger this fall when school starts back as they would have been this spring if I would have kept them in school what Micah's mom 88 89 years old it is much danger this fall as she is now so I understand we are following these lockdown orders but again knowing that we have to get from five percent to 60 or 70 percent how do we do that while doing our best to keep our loved ones safe and you are asking exactly the perfect question that we need to be having a national discussion on not these debates that we're seeing right now we have put forward for example that we need to thread the Rope through the needle how do we open up that we bringing back the youngest of our populations young adults and younger where the frequency of serious illness or deaths is very very low don't want to minimize that it can happen but in fact are we going to continue to try to shelter those people in place for the next 18 or 20 months till we might have a vaccine I don't think so I think we have to start having these discussions but on the other hand we know that there are people who are very high risk of having a much more serious disease how do we protect them how do we protect nursing homes right now we have basically throw in long term care facilities to the wind it they are so ill-prepared to deal with this this is one of the challenges we have right now so we have to start having these discussions literally about how do we open back up stay open in some cases but at the same time bubble and protect those people at highest risk you know let's just be clear this is a war this is not a battle we are going to take casualties for months to come what we have to do is be thoughtful and wise you and I don't want to be in that discussion where people have to figure out do I give this person the vent or that person the vent but at the same time we're gonna have to have those discussions on a population basis do we open back up enough so that we can actually sustain society not just an economy this is not about money versus lives this is about maintaining a society that we have desperately needed to have to get us through this and so I think Joe you're actually asking them the billion dollar question I don't have all the answers here today but I know it until we have that discussion and people like you continue to ask these good questions we're not even going to have that discussion that's what's important right now we've got to do that it's about society as well as it is about those we love and can I just had my daughter is the head of the U NATO intensive care medicine at the University of Minnesota she basically is in that room every day when women are delivering babies who are infected with this virus being exposed I understand exactly where you're coming from dr.

Michael Ulster home thank you so very much and please thank your dog thank you on behalf of all of what she does thank you all right we'll talk to you again soon we hope thanks for checking out MSNBC on YouTube and make sure you subscribe to stay up-to-date on the day's biggest stories and you can click on any of the videos around us to watch more four Morning Joe and MSNBC thanks so much for watching.

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